Financial professionals disclaimer

The information on this page is intended only for the use of independent financial advisers (IFAs) and other professional financial intermediaries. Please read the following information before proceeding. Reliance should not be placed on the information within this website and the views expressed when taking investment decisions. Please also confirm that you are an IFA or other professional financial intermediary, that you have read the information and wish to proceed further by clicking on the ‘Accept’ icon. If you are a retail investor, please click on the ‘Decline’ icon and visit the FP Brompton funds and WAY Global funds pages of our website. If you do not wish to proceed further, please also click on the ‘Decline’ icon.

Views and opinions

Brompton has expressed views and opinions on this website and these may change.

Accuracy

Brompton has taken reasonable care and employed reasonable skill to ensure that the information contained in this website is accurate at the time when this information is supplied by Brompton via its internet service. Errors and omissions may, however, occur because of a number of factors inherent in web-based information delivery and are not within Brompton’s reasonable control. For example, errors or omissions may occur because of unauthorised access to this website or the impact of hardware, software or operator error or a data transmission malfunction. Brompton, therefore, advises website visitors to confirm the accuracy of any information with Brompton before seeking to rely on such information.

Please read the following important information before proceeding. This includes information on some of the laws and regulations applicable to this website.

The information on this site is issued and approved by Brompton Asset Management LLP (Brompton) of 1 Knightsbridge Green, London, SW1X 7QA. Brompton is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This website is for information purposes only and prospective clients should refer to Brompton’s printed literature. Any prices and other information on this website do not constitute personal recommendations or advice.

The material on this site is directed only at persons in the UK. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to inform yourself of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions. Specifically, this website should not be accessed by any US Person. Please see a definition of a US Person at the end of this document.

Brompton may record telephone calls to protect the interests of clients and itself and to improve customer service.

Investments

You should always bear the following in mind:
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and you may not get back all of your original investment. Changes in exchange rates may cause the value of investments and the income from them to go down or up.

If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided on this website, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. Brompton Asset Management does not offer investment advice.

No reliance

Brompton has taken all reasonable care that the information contained within the website is accurate at the time of the publication. Brompton, however, makes no representation or warranty, including liability towards third parties, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. Information, opinions and estimates and any other contents on this website are provided by Brompton for information purposes only and are subject to change without notice.

Nothing contained on the website constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision.

No warranty

Brompton assumes no responsibility for, and makes no warranties that, functions contained on the website will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the website or the servers that make it available will be free of viruses or other harmful components.

Liability waiver

Under no circumstances, including, but not limited to, negligence, shall Brompton be liable for any special or consequential damages that result from the access or use of, or the inability to access or use, the materials at the website.

You should be aware that the internet is not a completely reliable transmission medium. Brompton shall not have any liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.

Messages that you send to Brompton by e-mail may not be secure. You are recommended not to send any confidential information to Brompton by e-mail. If you choose to send any confidential information to Brompton via e-mail you do so at your own risk with the knowledge that a third party may intercept this information. Instructions sent by you via e-mail and to the website are processed exclusively at your risk.

This website may contain links to other sites. Brompton is not responsible for the content or privacy practices of those other sites.

This website is governed by the laws of England.

Use of your personal data

We will use the personal data that you provide us on the website to process information requests that you make. In order to use your personal data as set out here, these may be stored and processed in any country worldwide and will be disclosed to partnerships and companies in the Brompton group and their agents.

Further information

This information will be updated from time to time. You are advised to check if any such updates have been made since you last visited this website.

US Persons

A US Person is any natural person resident in the United States (US); or a company or partnership incorporated or organised in the US, but excluding an offshore branch or agency of a US person that operates for valid business reasons and is engaged and regulated as an insurance company or bank; or a branch or agency of a foreign entity located in the US; or a trust of which the trustee is a US person, unless a non-US person has or shares investment discretion; or an estate of which a US person is the executor or administrator, unless the estate is governed by foreign law and a non-US person has or shares investment discretion; or a non-discretionary account held for the benefit of a US person; or a discretionary account held by a US dealer or fiduciary, unless held for the benefit of a non-US person; or any entity organised or incorporated for the purposes of evading US securities laws.

Market outlook
MARKET OUTLOOK

Brompton invests globally in all major asset classes. In making asset allocation decisions, first, we use information conveyed by numerous data releases to build a picture of the global economic outlook. Secondly, we combine the message from the data with our knowledge and investment experience to determine which investments are likely to perform in the prevailing economic conditions. Thirdly, we analyse valuations to identify genuine opportunities. Please use the dropdown menu to view our current thoughts about each major asset class and geographical region.

Overview
true
    • Government bond yields fall to historic lows
    • Expectations of further US interest rate increases recede
    • Central banks in aggregate still expanding monetary support
    • US inflation data to improve as economy nears full employment and oil price recovers
    • Global consumers benefit from lower oil price
    • Some respite from dollar strength and rising commodity prices lead to strong gains for emerging market assets
Equities
true
  • “Brexit” decision increases volatility but asset class supported by prospect of extended monetary easing
  • “Quality” companies with strong brands, high barriers to entry and high earnings visibility now on high valuations relative to cyclical peers
  • Emerging markets on low valuations and buoyed by commodity price recovery
  • Valuations generally supportive although US appears expensive relative to peers
Bonds
true
  • Yields at historically low levels as inflation remains below central bank targets and global economic growth remains subdued
  • Local currency emerging market bonds attractive given higher yields and improving current accounts
  • Gilt yields fall following Brexit but weaker sterling may prove inflationary
  • US intrest rate rises expected to be gradual
US
true
  • Labour market strengthens further as unemployment falls to 4.9%
  • US price changes back above zero and likely to rise further as oil price recovery impacts data
  • Consumer confidence high thanks to cheap fuel and higher employment
  • US presidential election creates uncertainty but no major change to monetary policy anticipated

UK
true
  • Leading indicators rebounded in August to signal expansion but Brexit impact not yet manifest
  • Fall in sterling improves UK export competitiveness
  • Bank of England cuts interest rates, expands quantitative easing and attempts to foster bank lending
  • UK consumer spending remains robust
Europe ex-UK
true
  • Political uncertainty remains as populist parties challenge EU
  • Quantitative easing, euro weakness and low energy costs support eurozone equities
  • Unit labour costs show some convergence but not for all markets
  • Negative interest rates damaging for banks
Japan
true
  • Safe-haven demand strengthens yen and leads to stockmarket falls
  • Negative interest rates fail to weaken yen
    Bank of Japan may announce further monetary easing following recent fiscal easing
  • Japan still cheap relative to other stockmarkets
  • Japanese vote decisively for Abenomics in July 2016
China
true
  • Currency depreciations in August 2015 and January 2016 sparked fears of global deflation.
  • Since then renminbi regains competitiveness
  • People’s Bank cuts interest rates, reduces bank reserve requirement ratio and allows currency to weaken to support economy; further action anticipated
  • Impact of high debt levels on state and corporate sectors unquantifiable
Asia Pacific ex-Japan and emerging markets
true
  • Slower pace of expected US rate rises leads to gains for equity and bond markets
  • Fall in US oil output contributes to stronger commodity prices and benefits commodity exporters
  • Equities generally supported by valuations
  • India benefits from cheap energy and government reforms
Hedge funds
true
  • Sector performance disappointing
  • Fund selection paramount
  • Limited investments on behalf of clients
  • Lower-volatility funds with consistent returns may diversify portfolio risk
  • Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) regulation a Brompton requirement
Gold
true
  • Gold rises in response to slower-than-expected pace of US rate rises and increased risk aversion
  • Gold miners prove sensitive to gold price recovery
  • Chinese central bank purchases lower than expected
  • India acts to discourage gold hoarding
Commodities
true
  • 2014 supply-side shock leads to oil price fall as producers compete for market share
  • US shale producers in financial distress
  • US output reduction leads to some recovery in oil price
  • Commodity prices remain sensitive to Chinese demand
Property
true
  • Outflows from UK direct property funds follow Brexit; some funds suspend dealing
  • Fall in property shares may provide a buying opportunity
  • Property still preferred to some bond market sectors given yield support and potential for real returns
  • Post-referendum uncertainty will abate slowly but new capacity is likely to be limited in most sectors given post-credit crisis restraints on bank lending.

This market outlook is based on the opinions of Brompton’s asset management team at the time of writing, supported by publicly-available information and other sources that Brompton believes to be reliable. Brompton cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information expressed. The views and opinions expressed are subject to change. They do not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. Nor should they be considered a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Brompton will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this material. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall as well as rise.